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January volumes are estimated as data was only available to 28 January at time of publication. Global milk productionProduct availability has outstripped demand in some cases leaving full inventories of butter and cheese in the EU for Q1 with increased production and reduced imports and exports. Available supplies of butter, cheese and whole milk powder (WMP) increased year-on-year whereas that of skimmed milk powder (SMP) has declined. Availability of SMP supplies declined by 20.6% year-on-year in Q1 2023 due to a 32.6% growth in exports. Before this, GB production had been running below year-ago figures since July 2021, although the year on year growth recorded in March through June was more to do with the sharp enforced reductions in the spring of 2020. An unfavourable milk-to-feed-price ratio, driven by rising feed costs and stagnant farmgate prices, was the key driver of lower yields in the autumn of 2021, although labour shortages will also have played a role. Margin pressures then worsened as global energy prices spiked, with the situation exacerbated by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The increase in milk prices through 2022 helped to offset the rising costs and supported improved yields in the final months of the year.

Suppressed demand and increasing supplies continued to push farmgate prices on a downwards trajectory. After the peak seen in January 2023, prices have been consistently falling: in June the average farmgate milk price reached 36.48 ppl according to Defra. Since then, announcements for July and August have continued to fall, although August was a more stable month. There were a continuation of falls in aligned contracts in August with all retailers dropping their prices.The model is based on milking a little over 200 cows, calving year round on 130ha (of which 60ha are on a farm business tenancy). Proprietor labour with one full-time worker (plus casual/relief) Organic production is already falling as the factors of falling demand, higher costs and lower prices are exaggerated and felt more keenly in the organic sector. The uplift in production from Sep-22 onwards, and the expectation that yields will remain supported as we move towards the 2023 spring flush, shifted the December forecast for the 2022/23 season from an expectation of further contraction (-0.8%) into growth (+0.7%). High input costs and low milk prices ought to be a deterrent to milk production but for now, with forage being readily available, production has stayed afloat. Our latest forecast for the 2023/24 milk season estimates that GB milk production will be flat compared to last year, with production likely to begin to falling after August. Future success of the industry will probably continue to depend on ensuring the consumer is properly informed about the world-class standards of health and welfare achieved by UK dairy farmers, and the importance of dairy as a natural component of a well-balanced diet.

The latest outlook for EU productionis for deliveries to increase 0.3% due to increased yields. They also expect growth in exports due to a competitive price point.Agricultural inflation levels have eased a lot since earlier in the year but many input costs remain at high levels and the continued declines in milk prices are impacting on farmers decision making with little appetite to push yields. Farmgate milk prices reported by Defra have stabilised for August, settling at 36.2ppl, a far cry from a year ago when prices were 23.9% higher.

In the first four months of this year, cuts to milk prices (excluding aligned) have ranged from 3.5ppl and 10.5ppl, with further cuts expected for May, although Freshways have held price for May while Tesco are returning to its cost model, increasing the milk price by 1.0ppl in May.GB milk production is forecast to reach 12.44bn litres for the 2022/23 season, up 0.7% on the previous season, according to the December forecast update. On a calendar year basis, GB production is expected to total 12.43bn litres. This is a 0.3% improvement on 2022, equivalent to an additional 39m litres. The industry’s emphasis should be on quality, not quantity, ensuring that demand is not exceeded, which should continue to maintain a strong retail price. Friesian Farm – summary figures (p/litre) Despite the recent upturn, total production across the key regions in the year to date (Jan-Nov22 [2]) was 0.5% lower than the previous year. Early forecasts for 2023 suggest no growth, although that varies by region. Higher production in the US (+1%) will be offset by reductions in most regions with the exception of a small gain in the UK (+0.3%) and unchanged production in Australia. Perhaps the most challenging legislation is around increased slurry storage. Grants will be available to increase capacity to six months, providing the storage is covered. The legal obligation (for now) remains four months.