Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth, offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicted a peak in world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline. [15] To ascertain whether the underlying socioeconomic factors in an SSP allow for the level of mitigation necessary to meet RCP targets, models used shared policy assumptions about limits to international cooperation in the short-to-medium term and the possible speed of emissions reductions. Estimates published in the early 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070. [13] For example in a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected that world population would peak at 9.2 billion in 2075 and then stabilize at a value close to 9 billion out to as far as the year 2300. [14] State Key Laboratory of Cancer Biology, Fourth Military Medical University, 710032, Xi'an, China. [email protected]. elzm74yxzp4swx5bs7cq-p4s4el-cd1a19887-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bt4ka-p0qvim-2e8a5e71e-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bt6hq-pzy1yp-35d9d01e0-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bt7mq-p1duy0-1060998fa-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bucja-p0twy9-19851792c-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bzqza-pn76ir-1c0c55ff7-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, elzm74yxzp4swx5bzsda-pqodge-888ec876f-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net,

clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 54-246-30-86_s-23-203-249-90_ts-1604429594-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 54-246-30-86_s-23-203-249-90_ts-1604433473-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 54-246-30-86_s-23-203-249-90_ts-1604433539-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 54-246-30-86_s-88-221-134-224_ts-1604435698-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 54-246-30-86_s-95-101-129-96_ts-1604424926-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net,Many of the SSPs end up being broadly similar in the narratives to the old SRES scenarios, used in the IPCC’s third and fourth assessment reports. For example, the sustainability-focused SSP1 is rather similar to SRES B1, while the more middle-of-the-road SSP2 is similar to SRES B2. The globally fragmented SSP3 is quite similar to SRES A2 and the high fossil-fuel reliant, high-growth SSP5 shares many elements with SRES A1F1. gzfstpqxzp4swx5bsvra-ps8whv-800c4ca06-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, gzfstpqxzp4swx5bt2ka-p3owfu-9bef421db-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, gzfstpqxzp4swx5btynq-p80cg4-5fbda6ae3-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, gzfstpsy3wdkax5btvta-pc4hb3-c24fbde0b-clientnsv4-s.akamaihd.net, i03f9f400-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net, i03fa4400-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net, i03faac00-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net, i03fae300-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net, i03fb4f00-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net, i22f29600-ds-aksb-a.akamaihd.net,

The 2022 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.3% per year in 1963, has since dropped to 0.9% in 2023, equivalent to about 74 million people each year, and projected that it could drop even further to minus 0.1% by 2100. [4] Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023 [update], would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100, (the medium-variant projection). [5] [6] In 2012, the UN changed its prediction to the effect that no maximum would likely be reached in the 21st century, and that by the year 2100 world population would increase to somewhere in the range 9.6 to 12.3 billion with 10.9 billion being the midpoint of that range. [16] The main reason for the revision was a recognition that the high fertility rate in Africa was not declining as fast as had been previously assumed. [17] Six IAMs were used to create energy use and emissions characteristics for the SSPs – AIM-CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND-Magpie, and WITCH-GLOBIOM. A total of 24 baseline scenarios were created by the different models simulating different SSPs, though not all models ran all SSPs. The population of the More Developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2-1.3 billion for the remainder of the 21st century. All population growth comes from the Less Developed regions. [5] [6]

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Fertility is expressed as the total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of the number of children on average that a woman will bear in her lifetime. With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth will be the evolution of the fertility rate. [22]

All scenarios in the SSP database that keep warming below 2C incorporate some bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). However, the degree to which they rely on BECCS – or on negative emissions more broadly – to meet the goal varies both by model and SSP. This pattern is evident when looking at individual countries in the region. For example, in 2020, the median ages of Brazil (33), Argentina (32) and Mexico (29) are all expected to be lower than the median age in the U.S. (38). However, by 2100, all three of these Latin American nations are projected to be older than the U.S. The median age will be 51 in Brazil, 49 in Mexico and 47 in Argentina, compared with a median age of 45 in the U.S. Colombia is expected to undergo a particularly stark transition, with its median age more than tripling between 1965 and 2100 – from 16 to 52.

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In general, SSPs that allow more rapid near-term emissions reductions, such as SSP1, rely less on BECCS later in the century. The figure below shows the total amount of energy generated from BECCS over the century for each SSP/RCP scenario, as well as IAM. It shows the difference in the amount of BECCS used by each model and each SSP, with some models showing considerably larger amounts than others for the same RCP mitigation target. SSP database. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts. The main driver of long-term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality. [3] History of population projections [ edit ]

While the baseline SSP scenarios portray a range of outcomes in the absence of additional climate policy, researchers also wanted to examine how different levels of climate mitigation and adaptation would fit into the future described by each SSP. In the below-2C RCP2.6, cumulative BECCS use ranges from a low of 1,660EJ to a high of 19,000EJ, or between 4% and 26% of all energy generated between present and 2100. SSP1 generally has the lowest BECCS use, followed by SSP2 and SSP4. SSP5, which limits near-term emission reductions, requires between two and eight times more BECCS than in SSP1. Projections of population beyond the year 2050 tend to vary depending on the organization making them because each make their own assumptions of the drivers of population change: fertility, mortality and migration. World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision". The United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs. 17 June 2013.A similar pattern holds in RCP3.4, but here one model (AIM) meets the target in SSP1 with next-to-no negative emissions. Across all the models, RCP3.4 requires 30-60% less BECCS than RCP2.6. Samsung has focused on three fan-favorite features for this Fan Edition - display, performance, and camera. And it has tried to give more of those for less, a job best suited for the flagship-killer kind. We surely are not calling it that, but the S21 FE does sound quite promising as an almost-there-flagship. clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 34-246-182-217_s-23-203-249-90_ts-1604429563-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 34-246-182-217_s-95-101-129-82_ts-1604425062-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 34-246-182-217_s-95-101-143-18_ts-1604429398-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 34-246-182-217_s-95-101-143-24_ts-1604429274-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net, 34-246-182-217_s-95-101-143-24_ts-1604429365-clienttons-s.akamaihd.net,