This increase was found to differ across the UK. When looking regionally, future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent. Beware of offshore winds if you are using inflatables, paddle boards or kayaks. These winds can blow you

It’s really important to reinforce that the harm to health associated with adverse weather is not inevitable. There are things we can do all year round, and during periods of adverse weather, to minimise the impact. An example of an intense rainfall event with 20mm/hr is London in July 2021, when 40mm of rain fell over three hours at Kew Gardens, flooding the underground and other infrastructure.This new study has shown that during extreme rainfall events in the UK the intensity of downpours could increase by 5-15% per °C of regional warming. This change is also uneven across the UK, the map below shows the underlying change in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation for every degree of warming. The greatest change is indicated by the blues in the Northwest of the UK, with the red and orange colours showing less change.

Overnight fog slowly clearing Thursday. An area of rain then probably arrives from the south, possibly falling as snow over higher hills. Clearing Friday to bright spells. Cloudier Saturday. Cold. In terms of flooding, the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment in 2021 identified flooding as one of the most important climate change adaptation challenges facing the UK. In all future climate change scenarios, direct and indirect flood risks are projected to rise over the course of the 21st century. Cloud and patchy rain will push away to the south Wednesday morning. Any fog patches clearing around dawn. Then mostly dry with sunny periods and isolated coastal showers. Rather cold. Maximum temperature 4 °C. Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: Cloudier at first in the west. Isolated mist or fog patches elsewhere soon clearing. Then mostly dry and bright with long sunny spells, although the odd shower may continue to clip Kent coasts. Feeling cooler. Maximum temperature 7 °C. Tonight: Temperatures above 25ºC are associated with excess heat-related deaths, with higher temperatures associated with even greater numbers of excess deaths. The risks are greatest for people with certain conditions:

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Both cold weather and flooding are linked to respiratory disease from mould and damp. What’s the impact of our changing climate? Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland could reach as low as -3C (26.6F). The south of England and Wales could see about two inches of rain on Thursday and Friday, and the Met Office is warning of possible thunderstorms, flooding and travel delays. The arrow shows the average direction of the waves 1-2 miles out to sea. It indicates how sheltered the Here at UKHSA, we play a key role in providing evidence and advice to help policy makers, organisations and individuals do just that. The risks to our health from adverse weather This summer UKHSA will publish the Health Effects of Climate Change, a landmark report produced periodically and last published in 2012. This will bring together the latest UK climate change projections and an assessment of the range of health risks.

The arrow shows the direction the wind is blowing. The letters show the direction the wind is blowing beach will be from these waves. If the arrow points towards land, most of the waves’ power will reach At this level of detail, it is possible to more accurately assess how convective downpours that can lead to flash flooding will change, for example when the intensity of the rain exceeds 20mm/hour. Thresholds of rainfall intensity like 20mm/hr are used for aspects of planning such as surface water drainage and flood risk. An important role for UKHSA is to monitor the health effects of adverse weather, and our changing climate more generally, and provide advice and guidance on how we can adapt to meet these challenges head on. Our guidance also includes advice that the public can act on to stay safe and as always, our most important call to action during adverse weather is to look out for people who might struggle to cope, particularly older people, young children and people with long term health conditions. Looking forward

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Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “Many parts of the UK will see a very unsettled spell of weather through the second half of the coming week, into next weekend. A number of areas have the potential to see a lot of rain as well as strong winds at times. Of particular concern at the moment is eastern and central Scotland where some exceptional rainfall totals could build up, falling on ground already saturated after recent heavy rainfall. This could lead to some significant and widespread disruption. Heat, cold and flooding are linked to mental health problems for instance (in England, most of the health burden associated with flooding is due to the impacts of flooding on mental health and wellbeing, ranging from stress and anxiety to serious long-term impacts).

Flooding also has extensive and significant impacts on health including direct effects like skin and gut infections from exposure to contaminated flood water. A version of the Met Office Unified Model, the same that is used for the operational UK weather forecast, has been run 12 times at a resolution of 2.2km (known as k-scale modelling) to give an ensemble of 100-year climate projections. We also publish a series of ‘action cards’ advising the NHS, social care organisations and professionals about the actions they should take to keep the public healthy and safe under different levels of alert. RCP 8.5is a pathway where greenhouse gas emissions keep accelerating. This is not inevitable, but a plausible scenario if we do not curb our emissions. The research, published in Nature Communications , found that under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20mm/hr could be four times as frequent by 2080 compared to the 1980s. Previous coarser model output (12km) predicted an increase of around two and a half times in the same period.Another concern is apparent sudden transitions to a much higher frequency of extreme events illustrated by the model output. This would suggest a sudden increase in the numbers of extreme rainfall events, outside of the experience of recent decades. If this scenario did happen it could lead to impacts where infrastructure was unprepared for such a change in our weather.” And whilst the immediate and direct impacts of very hot or cold weather and flooding are perhaps the most obvious, we should not forget the longer term or indirect impacts.