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SSP1-2.6 is a scenario experiment extending into the near future from 2015 to 2100, it is performed with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The forcing for the CMIP6 SSP experiments is derived from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), a set of emission scenarios driven by different socioeconomic assumptions, paired with representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global forcing pathways which lead to specific end of century radiative forcing targets. SSP1-2.6 is based on SSP1 with low climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges and RCP2.6, a future pathway with a radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m2 in the year 2100. The SSP1-2.6 scenario represents the low end of plausible future forcing pathways. SSP1-2.6 depicts a "best case" future from a sustainability perspective. The model includes the components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: WACCM6 (1.9x2.5 finite volume grid; 144 x 96 longitude/latitude; 70 levels; top level 4.5e-06 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320x384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmosphere: 250 km, atmospheric chemistry: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocean biogeochemistry: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km. The model includes the components: aerosol: prescribed MAC-v2, atmos: IITM-GFSv1 (T62L64, Linearly Reduced Gaussian Grid; 192 x 94 longitude/latitude; 64 levels; top level 0.2 mb), land: NOAH LSMv2.7.1, ocean: MOM4p1 (tripolar, primarily 1deg; 360 x 200 longitude/latitude; 50 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: TOPAZv2.0, seaIce: SISv1.0. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmosphere: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocean biogeochemistry: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km. SSP5-8.5 is a scenario experiment extending into the near future from 2015 to 2100, it is performed with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The forcing for the CMIP6 SSP experiments is derived from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), a set of emission scenarios driven by different socioeconomic assumptions, paired with representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global forcing pathways which lead to specific end of century radiative forcing targets. SSP5-8.5 is based on SSP5 in which climate change mitigation challenges dominate and RCP8.5, a future pathway with a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 in the year 2100. The ssp585 scenario represents the high end of plausible future forcing pathways. SSP5-8.5 is comparable to the CMIP5 experiment RCP8.5. The model includes the components: aerosol: prescribed monthly fields computed by TACTIC_v2 scheme, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top-level 78.4 km), atmosChem: OZL_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

an improved understanding of the societal and environmental implications of climate change in terms of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, SSP2-4.5 is a scenario experiment extending into the near future from 2015 to 2100, it is performed with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The forcing for the CMIP6 SSP experiments is derived from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), a set of emission scenarios driven by different socioeconomic assumptions, paired with representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global forcing pathways which lead to specific end of century radiative forcing targets. SSP2-4.5 is based on SSP2 with intermediate climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges and RCP4.5, a future pathway with a radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in the year 2100. The ssp245 scenario represents the medium part of plausible future forcing pathways. SSP2-4.5 is comparable to the CMIP5 experiment RCP4.5.Common standards, coordination, infrastructure and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; The model includes the components: aerosol: UKCA-GLOMAP-mode, atmos: MetUM-HadGEM3-GA7.1 (N96; 192 x 144 longitude/latitude; 85 levels; top level 85 km), land: JULES-HadGEM3-GL7.1, ocean: NEMO-HadGEM3-GO6.0 (eORCA1 tripolar primarily 1 deg with meridional refinement down to 1/3 degree in the tropics; 360 x 330 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), seaIce: CICE-HadGEM3-GSI8 (eORCA1 tripolar primarily 1 deg; 360 x 330 longitude/latitude). The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmosphere: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km. Several recent studies (Brunner et al., 2020; Liang et al., 2020; Nijsse et al., 2020; Ribes et al., 2021; Tokarska et al., 2020) constrain the ensemble projections according to the evaluation of the ensemble historical behavior. All studies find a strong correlation between the simulated warming trends over the observed historical period and the warming in SSP scenarios, which suggested constraining future warming using observed warming trends estimated from several observational products, and all come to similar results. Here, and in Table A6, we show how the 2081–2100 means for both CMIP5 and CMIP6 are changed as a result of applying constraints as in Tokarska et al. (2020). Also in Fig. A6, we show the same results but focus specifically on these 20-year means, before and after the application of the constraints. The resulting observationally constrained ranges bring CMIP6 projections closer to both the raw CMIP5 ranges and their constrained counterparts in both mean and spread (especially the upper bound). In other words, models that project the most warming by the end of the century tend to do the least well in reproducing historical warming trends for both ensembles, but the effect is much more pronounced for CMIP6 than CMIP5 models (see also Fig. A6). After constraints are applied, the difference in the mean changes by 2081–2100 is 0.29 for the two lower scenarios and 0.15 ∘C under SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5. The difference in the upper range under the latter scenario is reduced to 0.59 ∘C. The model includes the components: aerosol: IAP AACM, atmos: IAP AGCM 5.0 (Finite difference dynamical core; 256 x 128 longitude/latitude; 35 levels; top level 2.2 hPa), atmosChem: IAP AACM, land: CoLM, ocean: LICOM2.0 (LICOM2.0, primarily 1deg; 362 x 196 longitude/latitude; 30 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: IAP OBGCM, seaIce: CICE4. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmosphere: 100 km, atmospheric chemistry: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, ocean biogeochemistry: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

table_id: this refers to the MIP table being used. The MIP tables are used to organise the variables. For example, Amon refers to monthly atmospheric variables and Oday contains daily ocean data. SSP4-3.4 is a scenario experiment extending into the near future from 2015 to 2100, it is performed with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The forcing for the CMIP6 SSP experiments is derived from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), a set of emission scenarios driven by different socioeconomic assumptions, paired with representative concentration pathways (RCPs), global forcing pathways which lead to specific end of century radiative forcing targets. SSP4-3.4 is based on SSP4 in which climate change adaptation challenges dominate and RCP3.4, a future pathway with a radiative forcing of 3.4 W/m2 in the year 2100. The SSP4-3.4 scenario fills a gap at the low end of the range of plausible future forcing pathways. SSP 4-3.4 is of interest to mitigation policy since mitigation costs differ substantially between forcing levels of 4.5 W/m2 and 2.6 W/m2. The model includes the components: atmos: ECHAM v6.3 (T63; 192 x 96 longitude/latitude; 47 levels; top level 1 Pa), land: JSBACH v3.1, ocean: NEMO v3.4 (NEMO v3.4, tripolar primarily 1deg; 384 x 362 longitude/latitude; 46 levels; top grid cell 0-6 m), seaIce: CICE4.1. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: atmosphere: 250 km, land: 2.5 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km. Global climate projections are simulations of the climate system performed with general circulation models which represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and land surface. These models cover the entire globe and use information about the external influences on the system. Such simulations have been generated by multiple independent climate research centres in an effort coordinated by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climate projections underpin the conclusions of the IPCC Assessment Reports that “Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems”. The Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)The model includes the components: atmos: IFS cy36r4 (TL159, linearly reduced Gaussian grid equivalent to 320 x 160 longitude/latitude; 62 levels; top-level 5 hPa), land: HTESSEL (land surface scheme built-in IFS), ocean: NEMO3.6 (ORCA1 tripolar primarily 1 degree with meridional refinement down to 1/3 degree in the tropics; 362 x 292 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), seaIce: LIM3. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

The model includes the components: aerosol: SPRINTARS6.0, atmos: CCSR AGCM (T42; 128 x 64 longitude/latitude; 40 levels; top level 3 hPa), land: MATSIRO6.0+VISIT-e ver.1.0, ocean: COCO4.9 (tripolar primarily 1deg; 360 x 256 longitude/latitude; 63 levels; top grid cell 0-2 m), ocnBgchem: OECO ver.2.0; NPZD-type with C/N/P/Fe/O cycles, seaIce: COCO4.9. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 500 km, atmos: 500 km, land: 500 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.The model includes the components: aerosol: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), atmos: WACCM6 (0.9x1.25 finite volume grid; 288 x 192 longitude/latitude; 70 levels; top level 4.5e-06 mb), atmosChem: MAM4 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM5 (same grid as atmos), landIce: CISM2.1, ocean: POP2 (320 x 384 longitude/latitude; 60 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: MARBL (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE5.1 (same grid as ocean). The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmosphere: 100 km, atmospheric chemistry: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 5 km, ocean: 100 km, ocean biogeochemistry: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km. The model includes the components: aerosol: interactive, atmos: CanAM5 (T63L49 native atmosphere, T63 Linear Gaussian Grid; 128 x 64 longitude/latitude; 49 levels; top-level 1 hPa), atmosChem: specified oxidants for aerosols, land: CLASS3.6/CTEM1.2, landIce: specified ice sheets, ocean: NEMO3.4.1 (ORCA1 tripolar grid, 1 deg with refinement to 1/3 deg within 20 degrees of the equator; 361 x 290 longitude/latitude; 45 vertical levels; top grid cell 0-6.19 m), ocnBgchem: Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC); NPZD ecosystem with OMIP prescribed carbonate chemistry, seaIce: LIM2. The model was run in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 500 km, atmosphere: 500 km, atmospheric chemistry: 500 km, land: 500 km, landIce: 500 km, ocean: 100 km, ocean biogeochemistry: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km. nine additional initial condition ensemble members under SSP3-7.0 to explore internal variability and signal-to-noise characteristics of the different participating models.